Steal this Science Fiction Idea #2

I’d like to read a story in which there is a betting market, a-la Intrade, that offers a bet regarding the nationality of the perpetrator of the next terrorist attack. The idea is that betting markets tend to be excellent predictors of the future, and that in the case of these sorts of questions, reveal the beliefs of those doing the betting. The story could take place sufficiently far into the future that the market for prediction trading would be large enough that a conspiracy could be constructed. Let’s suppose that the market for “next terrorist attack on American soil perpetrated by an American citizen” would be manipulated. A group could bet huge money on this, and then actually arrange the perpetration of the crime, thereby getting a huge payout. Kind of like Le Chiffre in Casino Royale. Then you could have some insider in the scheme simultaneously arranging some other non-American to commit a terrorist act, thereby foiling the predictive market scheme.

Of course, many innocent bystanders would be killed. The idea, of course, is that the predictive market could be self-fulfilling.


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